 |
 |
|
"Koeppel Direct's media buying expertise has played an integral role in making my company successful. Koeppel generated so much business for our company, occasionally we have to limit their media buys, in order to handle all of the new business." | |
| - R. Gregg Marketer of Senior Products |
|
MEDIA BUYING DIRECT RESPONSE TELEVISION (DRTV) ARTICLE ...... |
How the new TV season is shaping up
By: Diego Vasquez
Published: 08/06 - Media Life Magazine |
| |
It's six weeks until the new TV season officially begins and only 11 days before
Fox premieres the season's first new show, "Vanished." This is the time when networks scramble with last-minute
pilot tweaks and schedule switches, including a slight shakeup on Thursday nights made by ABC earlier this week.
But as the new season moves closer, there's a sense among media people that, for the second straight year, there
won't be a big breakout hit. Two years after "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost" sent ABC soaring, no upcoming
program has the potential to either revive ailing NBC or give ABC or CBS a significant boost. That means
that Fox, which has won two straight seasons among adults 18-49, remains the favorite this year. Karen
McCallum, media director at Esparza Advertising in Albuquerque, and Peter Koeppel, founder and president of
Koeppel Direct in Dallas, talk to Media Life about this season's most promising shows, the least promising
shows, and what the most competitive night will be.
Last year there was no one big new hit. Are there any shows that you think could be a real breakout a
la "Housewives" or "Lost?"
PK: I think the biggest show this year will be "Greys Anatomy" moving to Thursday at 9 p.m. I feel this could
be the biggest show on TV, even though it is going up against "CSI." It really gained momentum at the end of
last season, and the reruns of the first season are doing well right now.
KM: I didn't think "Desperate Housewives" would do what it did in its first season but ABC had nothing to
lose. Arguably, the network with the least to lose this season would be NBC. However, I'm not seeing the
level of risk with any of their shows that we saw with "Housewives" or "Lost." This season is more likely to
follow last year with no real network standouts.
Which three new shows look most promising this fall?
PK: I couldn't narrow it down to three yet. Here are seven that look promising: "Six Degrees" on ABC on
Thursday at 10 p.m. looks good. I think it will do well. "Shark," which is the James Woods court show on CBS,
also shows promise. "Smith," the Ray Liotta CBS show that is "Ocean's Twelve"-ish, looks like it will do well
also. NBC's "Twenty Good Years" and "Heroes" also look good. NBC's "Friday Night Lights" looks promising
for picking up the "OC" crowd. CBS's "The Unit" finished strong in the spring and also looks promising.
KM: "Shark" on CBS Thursdays at 10. James Woods' character is fun to watch, Spike Lee directed the pilot, it
follows "CSI," and "ER" is eroding.
"The Class" on CBS Mondays. CBS's Monday night comedy block has performed solidly. ABC has a hard road in the absence
of "Monday Night Football." Many of the other new comedies are overly formulaic and reliant on laugh tracks. Every
viewer can remember themselves as that freckled red-headed kid [and thus relate to the show].
"Til Death" on Fox Thursday at 8. Brad Garrett and Joely Fisher's contrast with the starry-eyed newlyweds
next door is well-written and well-cast.
Which three look least promising?
PK: ABC's "Brothers and Sisters." CBS's "Jericho" seems too depressing. Given the state of world affairs
today people want an escape when watching TV, so I don't think this show will have much appeal. The
sitcom "Big Day" on ABC.
KM: "Jericho." It's dark and confusing. Up against "Dancing with the Stars" and NBC's big-name new comedies,
it's a long shot.
"Big Day" on ABC at midseason. "24" works in real time because of Jack Bauer. Who wants to watch someone plan a
wedding in real time?
"Kidnapped" on NBC Wednesdays at 10. "CSI NY" is still big time and ABC's "The Nine" has good buzz and a better
lead-in with "Lost." This is not a great fit out of "The Biggest Loser."
There's been a lot of talk about NBC having two new shows with the same concept/theme, "30 Rock" and "Studio 60."
Do you think viewers will be confused by this? Will they be willing to watch two shows with such similar
setups?
PK: NBC is marketing "30 Rock" primarily as a comedy and "Studio 60" as a drama. Both shows have strong
casts, but "Studio 60" has a stronger pedigree with Aaron Sorkin and Tommy Schlamme as producers. NBC is
promoting both heavily but I suspect "Studio 60" will be the stronger program.
KM: True, they are both about people who work in TV shows but there are so many differences. "30 Rock"
is funny. Tina Fey is a good writer and can speak to a slightly younger demographic. "Studio 60" is Aaron
Sorkin drama, "West Wing" aficionados, huge internet buzz already. The audience for the two shows really isn't
that similar.
What do you think the prospects are for MyNetworkTV? Will it draw an audience?
PK: I don't think it will draw an audience, because people like to become engaged with characters on
TV shows and there's not enough time to do that with MyNetworkTV's shorter show format.
KM: Prospects are mixed for MyNetworkTV. They were smart to differentiate themselves from CW. The
telenovela model has proven very successful in Spanish language TV. Looking at success of game shows,
which were shown on multiple nights during the week on English TV, the model has the potential to
translate to a broader audience. Their costs are very low and they have some big-name stars, so they have
the potential to be profitable. It will be difficult for them to draw a large audience, though.
ABC moved "Ugly Betty" from Fridays to Thursday yesterday, crowding the night even more. Do you think it can
draw an audience there?
PK: I'm not familiar with this show.
KM: That's a disappointing move. I understand how competitive Thursday night is and that "Notes From the
Underbelly" and "Big Day" didn't have great chances. I applaud ABC for adopting an extremely successful
telenovela for the broader American audience. But "Betty" might have found a niche a la "Joan of Arcadia"
on a less competitive night.
What will the most competitive night of the week be?
PK: Thursday with "Grey's Anatomy," "Six Degrees," "CSI," "Deal or No Deal" and "ER."
KM: That's a really hard call between Thursday and Sunday. Let's give the edge to Thursday for a couple of
reasons. "CSI," the perennial favorite, will go head-to-head with "Grey's Anatomy," the new watercooler hit
and critical darling. Throw in "Deal or No Deal," and NBC's "Earl"/"Office," which has gained a lot of
momentum, and TiVos will be whirring across the land.
Who is the favorite to finish No. 1 in 2006-07?
PK: Fox is going to be tough to beat with "Idol," but I think ABC has a shot with "Desperate Housewives,"
"Grey's Anatomy" and the new shows. On the syndication side there is a big buzz about Rachael Ray and her
new show this year.
KM: CBS will win in total viewers. We'll see what impact [the loss of]"MNF" and NBC's "NFL Sunday Night"
has on the demos.
Click Here to view the entire article
|
| |
|
|
|
